Off Tackle Analytics compares model estimates with sportsbook prices to find player props that look underpriced, and ranks the likeliest outcomes each week.
Player projections use recent NFL game stats from the open nflverse project, weighted toward the latest games and adjusted for how much the opposing defense allows. Book lines come from a licensed odds feed. Team win, score, and margin chances come from the market's own spread and total. Player touchdown chances come from recent touchdowns per game.
Edge is the model's probability minus the probability implied by the book's price. A large edge often means the model is missing something the market knows, like an injury or a role change, so check the news before acting on anything here.
These are estimates from a simple model. Injury reports lag, early-week data is thin, and small samples swing a lot. Nothing here is a guarantee or financial advice.
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For entertainment and information only. Not financial advice, and no outcome is guaranteed. 21+ where legal. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.